Saturday, August 9, 2008

Personal update, the Olympics and thoughts on the environmental future of China.

It's been a bit since I've worked on this blog. Why? I've been busy. I started a new job, and it's here in the United States. For better or worse, it has nothing to do with either China or water, but is in an organization large enough so that I may eventually move up or over to a position where I can pursue these interests. I hope so anyway, but I've got to prove myself at the position where I am at first.

First question, with all that money that is allegedly to be made doing business in China, why aren't I over there right now, enjoying the Olympics?

Three quick answers, 1) the pollution makes me sick. To clarify, I don't mean that in the sense of morally outraged, I mean that it makes me feel physically bad and does things to my body that I don't like and that make exercise problematic, 2) ethics of working in business in a nation that is exploiting its workers, denying them rights and simultaneously taking jobs from nations with higher standards of not just living, but also workers rights and pollution controls, and 3) my age. (I am not as young as I used to be and would like to achieve some financial stability and security instead of continuously risking my health and future on quixotic endeavors, both here and abroad.) Therefore, I am now gainfully employed in the United States, in a job that does not terribly excite me but has great potential for the future.

So what's going to happen to China water blog?

First, as always, please feel free to contact me. Quite frankly, I'd value some feedback and attention.

Secondly, I intend to continue pursuing the topic, only there's no way that I will do so daily as I have in the past. Also, I hope to explore some aspects of water and water in China more in-depth than I have in the past. Hopefully this will result in higher quality reporting, but it will also reduce the quantity of output.

Thirdly, with only so much time in a day, I expect to be pursuing other interests as well. Some of these will be China related, some will not.

Regardless, I think past posts have shown that there is a big problem waiting to happen when the world's most populous nation and fastest growing economy is running out of water, and it is.

I do think the Chinese are quite aware of this problem. They have, after all, been quite concerned with water issues for over 2000 years, as evidence by a long history of civil engineering involving both canals and irrigation. Furthermore, Hu Jintao has a background in water issues himself, as do a surprising number of Chinese government officials.

The problem with addressing China's water and pollution problems though, lies in China's unique situation. As we can see from the now on-going olympics, China is under a great deal of tension. These Olympics have been marked by more protests, both violent and non-violent, and human rights issues than any that I can recall.

Gee! Just think, they place the Olympics in a nation with a long history of human rights abuses and then, gosh! --for some reason people start complaining about human rights abuses! Who ever would have figured? (And somehow the sight of thousands upon thousands of people marching and dancing in synchronized faux-cheerfulness did not quite still my concerns any. Gabrielle D'Annunzio would have loved it though.)

Of course, the list of human rights problems in China is long.

The Tibetan protests both at home and abroad were widely reported.

Not so widely reported were the struggles and violence from the Uighurs, China's largest Muslim minority in Xinjiang to the north of Tibet.

(see, here, or here or here for one incident. See here for another.)

For background and a summary of the Uighur situation see from Human Rights Watch see here. For the Amnesty International Version go here . For the Council on Foreign Relations report, go here .

Which is not to mention, Falun Gong, the religious group that has been involved in protesting the Beijing Olympics, also for human rights abuses, and, quite frankly, I'm sure if I were to scour around I could find more issues and more links involving China's intolerable human rights abuses. (i.e. Several of the minorities in Yunnan complain of mistreatment and repression, the Chinese Catholics are not allowed contact with the Vatican and missionary activities, union organization, environmentalist protests are all restricted and often punished in a heavy handed, repressive manner that would not be tolerated in the West.)

Why?

Simply because you have the largest population of any nation in the world, crammed into a tiny space (remember most Chinese live in a relatively restricted area of China simply because those are the only areas where one can grow food and get water. Few live in areas like Tibet or Xinjiang where resources are more scarce and population density must be considerably less.) In this tiny space, resources are stretched and distribution is also stretched. Should widespread civil unrest occur, millions will die from both starvation and violence.

The Chinese government is an atavism, a Communist relic that has gained legitimacy by encouraging its citizens to engage in Capitalism. As long as the appearance of wealth and the appearance of increase of wealth continues then the citizens will allow the government to rule. The Chinese, after all and as evidenced by much of SE Asian history, are among the most business-minded peoples in the world.

However, should the wealth appear to stop coming, then problems will occur. Citizens will see no reason at all to tolerate this government. They will agitate. Social unrest will occur.

Should the social unrest become large enough, millions will die from both violence and shortages.

Therefore, if the government of China should take a firm hand on the issue of pollution and water issues, and restrict businesses overly much because of it, then the profits, at least in the short term, will decline.

Then the government of China will lose support, because its primary support now rests on its alleged economic successes. The degree of loss of support cannot be predicted but its probably safe to say that the more important people who feel their wealth is imperiled then the less support the government will have.

Should the government of China of lose sufficient support, civil unrest will occur and, guess what, millions will die from violence and food shortages.

Therefore the government of China, for several reasons, will continue to both encourage acquisition of wealth, often to the detriment of environmental interests, and keep a handle on social unrests as well as the groups that, rightly or wrongly, promote social unrest.

Why? Because there's just too many people living in too small a space, trying to use too little stuff.

Is there a solution to this conundrum? Maybe, the Chinese are, after all, trying to get as much control as possible over overseas resources, particularly in Africa. Then again, with rising fuel and shipping costs, it's going to become increasingly difficult to get all this stuff back to China (which is not to mention that this proposed solution might not be in the best interests of the African people.)

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