Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Be careful out there!

Ooops! I just thought this was interesting.

I stumbled across this article,
http://www.naturalnews.com/023593.html
, today and read it with interest. However it speaks frequently of "Fuqing" province, when there is no such province. So, I got suspicious.

It appears these folks at Natural Health, tried to rewrite this article here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/15/world/asia/15fish.html
.

Not only did they not do a good job but they also neglected to mention that their source was 8 months old.

Oh well, years ago I was active in skepticism and frequently published as a critic of so-called "New Age" ideas and thinking. Now you know why I looked at these things with some suspicion.

China Water: July 10, 2008: Economic problems loom in China.

I do not consider myself an expert on Chinese economics, although I am advanced in the study of that country. Unfortunately, however, when one studies a nation or region, what many people expect from you seems to be the ability to prophecize events and conditions in that region. They say, "Oh, you study China. Great, what will happen there next?" or "Do you think their economy will continue to improve?"

I cannot do this for China, at least not with much accuracy, and I cannot do it for the United States either.

But in my opinion, the Chinese economy will continue to grow for a bit and then slow down. At that point the Chinese economy will continue to be important in the world, but much of its current activity will shift southward to Indonesia and Vietnam.

This assumes, of course, that catastrophe such as civil war or economic collapse does not occur. Then again, although I think such things are possible, I don't think they are going to happen.

I think a parallel could be drawn between China now and Japan and its economic boom in the 1980s.

Peter Huston
===


http://business.theage.com.au/if-china-slips-on-oil-it-will-learn-that-distance-is-tyranny-20080708-3bxp.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2


If China slips on oil, it will learn that distance is tyranny

July 9, 2008

China's days as the world's manufacturing base may be numbered, writes David Hirst.

AS MUCH of the financial world comes to realise the extent of our economic woes and the possibility of catastrophic consequences, reports on the scope of the crisis are coming at bewildering speed, killing any hopes of sharemarket rises daily.

On Monday, the Dow, buoyed by falling oil prices in the morning, was buffeted and continued to take water when Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae began to founder. Those two organisations, if one can use that word loosely, are the bears' best friends, and a mention of them is enough to send the indices into troubled waters.

But along with the publicised Bank of International Settlements reports, and apparently unreported outside of Europe, is an extremely dire study (on which the BIS reports may be partly based) that finds that banking losses have skyrocketed to $US1.6 trillion ($A1.7 trillion), with total debt risk of $US26.6 trillion, which has stunned European financial authorities.

And perhaps more frightening is a report published by the London Telegraph on Monday that China oil prices threaten the "blowing-up" of the Chinese economy and the demise of the Chinese economic model, as distance from markets threatens to impose a harsh tyranny. "The great oil shock of 2008 is bad enough for us," writes the Telegraph, citing some very solid sources. "It poses a mortal threat to the whole economic strategy of emerging Asia."

China's economic model is, like most economic models, based on oil prices far below what they are today. Even the ships that transport the basic goods to be assembled in China and then freighted around the world are built assuming cheap oil. And its super-mass production relies on very slim profit margins. And, before we take heart in the hope of cheaper oil, China's banks, controlled as they are by the Communist Party, are not exactly models to follow, except for those elements in the US Government that seem to be uncovering new and exciting ways to nationalise or socialise that country's banking system. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are likely starters for formalising such, but more of that when we have digested the problems to Australia's north.

On Monday, a US website posted a translation of a German newspaper report from Marco Zanchi, a noted European writer and editor of Finanz und Wirtschaft of Zurich, commenting that his "dire" predictions for world markets had "echoes of Japan written all over it, with the spectre of zombie banks slowing the US for years" unless its mess was cleared away.

The report, titled "The large financial crisis has just begun", opens with the statement: "Those that assume the misery is coming to an end are wrong. When it comes to write-downs, losses and raising fresh capital, the crisis has only just begun for banks. Losses are expected to reach $1.6 trillion, only a fraction of which have been uncovered."

"But that is not everything," the study continues. "While banks give their word of honour that no further capital is needed, the paper by Bridgewater Associates says: 'We have big doubts that financial institutions will be able to obtain enough new capital in order to cover the losses. This will worsen the credit crunch."'

The suggestion that China may soon be dead in the water is so unthinkable that it should be unprintable. Especially in Australia. For Australia has de-coupled in its mind from the US and found a new great and powerful friend. Along with news of the huge strains Vietnam is experiencing — I believe no sharemarket in history has, like Vietnam, fallen every day for a solid month — the news out of China might result in a blow to the lucky country's glass jaw.

The Telegraph report follows a weekend Reuters story, "Asia's exporters suffering as global demand weakens", which quotes a Deutsche Bank estimate that 20% of China's low-end exporters will go belly-up this year.

China's official inflation rate is 7.7% but it has started rolling back domestic subsidies for fuel — and fertiliser, the price of which has increased about 300% recently. The Chinese Government has realised a bit late that its energy inefficiency puts it at a competitive disadvantage; ending the subsidies is seen as necessary to force businesses to become more efficient energy users. This will be a painful process.

Likewise, the cost of a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has tripled since the price of oil exploded. China's industries have been built on cheap transport over the past decade. A report cited by the Telegraph from Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, states that "at a stroke, the trade model looks obsolete. Asia's intra-trade model is a Ricardian network where goods are shipped in a criss-cross pattern to exploit comparative advantage. Profit margins are wafer-thin. Products are sent to China for final assembly, then shipped again to Western markets. The snag is obvious …

"Energy subsidies have disguised the damage. China has held down electricity prices, though global coal costs have tripled since early 2007. Loss-making industries are being propped up. This merely delays trouble. The true impact of the shock will only be revealed over time, as subsidies are gradually rolled back."

Last week, China raised internal rail freight rates by 17%.

BP's Statistical Review says China's use of energy per unit of gross domestic product is three times that of the US, five times Japan's, and eight times Britain's.

China's factories "were not built with current energy levels in mind", says Jen. The outcome, he suggests, will be "non-linear". Translation: "China is at risk of blowing up."

The Asian outsourcing game is over, says CIBC World Markets. "It's not just about labour costs any more: distance costs money," says chief economist Jeff Rubin.

Although many governments might envy the stability of Communist Party rule of 60 years next year, it masks potential social instability, a condition common with many of the most successful but newer economies. China is being crunched by the triple effects of commodity costs, 20% wage inflation, and sagging import demand in the US, Canada, Britain, Spain, Italy and France. And critics warn that Beijing has repeated the errors of Tokyo in the 1980s by over-investing in marginal plant. A Communist Party banking system has let rip with cheap credit — steeply negative real interest rates — to buy time for the regime.

Whether or not this is fair, it is clear Beijing's mercantilist policy of holding down the yuan to boost exports has hit the buffers.

Of course, oil prices may fall. But broader international economic issues are coming into play.

The research paper published in Europe is "hot" in professional circles not only because of its content, but also because of the originator: Bridgewater Associates is the second-largest hedge fund in the world. The people behind it are brilliant, first among them Ray Dalio, who founded the company more than 30 years ago. And Bridgewater's macro-analyses have special weight with central banks as some of them are Bridgewater customers.

What is at risk for the banks? To identify the dimensions of the crisis for financial institutions, Bridgewater has calculated the expected losses on a wide range of risky credit-based US assets. Then, one would need to know basically who had how much on the books. The total value of these risky loans comes to $US26.6 trillion. The losses on these assets would then sum to $US1.6 trillion, if all of the assets were valued at market prices, writes Dalio.

David Hirst is a journalist, documentary maker, financial consultant and investor. His column, Planet Wall Street, is syndicated by News Bites, a Melbourne-based sharemarket and business news publisher.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

China Water: July 8, 2008: 15 dead in SW China landslides.

Landslides in Hubei and in Yunnan.



http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hist3_LSG0eoJOSTfZ0tPP_6fEhA


15 dead or missing in landslides in southwest China

23 hours ago

BEIJING (AFP) — Up to 15 people were dead or missing after torrential rains in southwest China triggered landslides in mountainous areas toppling houses and burying villagers, state press said on Tuesday.

Nine people were confirmed dead and six others were missing since the rains last week set off mud and rock slides engulfing the Liangshan prefecture in Sichuan province, Xinhua said.

Fatalities could rise as rescuers sought to dig out at least six villagers buried beneath the debris of five toppled houses in one area, the report said.

Six of the confirmed fatalities occurred in Long'en village which was swamped by 223 millimetres of rain (8.9 inches) over the five-day period, the report said.

China is deluged by torrential rains each summer as rivers coming down from its mountainous western regions swell and flood rural farmlands in the east, killing hundreds every year.

At least 12 people were killed in the central Hubei province and six in southwestern Yunnan due to torrenital rains over the weekend, Xinhua said.

More than 250 people died when torrential rains and flooding swept China last month, the China Daily reported over the weekend.

China Water: July 8, 2008: Upscale Green Living in China.

As mentioned previously, it's official! Clean Air and Clean Water, or "Green Living" is now a luxury item in China and is being marketed as such.

Peter Huston
===
Green living makes headway in China
By Qian Yanfeng (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-07-07 13:45


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/07/content_6824708.htm


As environmental living becomes synonymous with high-end living, green buildings are making headway in China's construction industry as a solution for both environmental protection and market differentiation.

Motivated by the prospect, a small number of real estate developers in China are working to develop the Chinese concept of "green" and feed the growing demand among middle-class Chinese and foreigners for healthier living and working environments.

Embracing such a corporate strategy for the development of sustainable buildings, Shenzhen-based infrastructure and property developer Shenzhen Fountain Corporation has aligned itself with the green building industry in China. The company will develop LEED-registered residential buildings in Zhuhai in Guangdong province and Changsha in Hunan province, in order to bring world-class environmental standards to more Chinese people.

The LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Green Building Rating System is an internationally accepted rating system and benchmark for evaluating and certifying sustainable sites, water and energy efficiency, material selection and indoor environmental quality.

The United States Green Building Council, a non-profit organization committed to sustainable building design and construction, developed the LEED.

The Shenzhen developer will cooperate with a US-based green building and design consulting firm Environmental Market Solutions Inc (EMSI) for LEED consulting and certification services for both projects.

With LEED certification, buildings are expected to bring both environmental and economic benefits. They can save 20 to 60 percent on energy consumption and enhance indoor comfort. With such returns-on-investment, LEED-certified buildings are highly competitive with other projects although they are comparatively pricier to build, says Zhou Yan, project manager from EMSI.

The incremental costs for the construction of LEED-certified buildings depend on different levels and may vary from 5 to 15 percent or more of the original estimate.

But by going green developers can build a competitive edge, which showcases their international status as well as environmental responsibility, says Zhou.



http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/07/content_6824708_2.htm

Page Two.

Green living makes headway in China
By Qian Yanfeng (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-07-07 13:45


"China's increasing appreciation of green has made green building certification sought-after for many real estate developers with an eye for market differentiation," Zhou says.

In partnership with USGBC for LEED projects in China, EMSI has been engaged in more than 20 green building projects that cover a total construction area of more than 5 million sq m.

China has one of the world's largest and fastest-growing construction industries. Statistics from McKinsey Global Institute show that China will build almost 40 billion sq of floor space over the next 20 years, requiring the construction of between 20,000 and 50,000 new skyscrapers.

The World Bank also estimates that by 2015, half of the world's new building construction will take place in China. By that time, urban China will account for 20 percent of the global energy consumption and up to one-quarter of the growth in oil demand and pulling environmental concerns right to the top of the government's agenda.

Pushed by rising environmental concern as well as the demand for better living environments, China has become increasingly interested in LEED and other international green building certification systems.

The Ministry of Science and Technology, for example, has introduced The Green Olympic Building Assessment System for the 2008 Olympics, which is modeled primarily on Japan's Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency and, to a lesser extent, LEED.

China has also developed its own green building certification system. Released on June 1, 2006, the Green Building Evaluation System officially defines eco-friendly buildings in China and has three rating levels looking at similar areas of environmental health.

Based on the average energy efficiency of buildings in 1980, the system sets minimum requirements on all new construction in China to decrease their energy use by 50 percent before 2010 and by 65 percent before 2020. But cities like Beijing and Tianjin have already raised their minimum requirement to 65 percent, according to Xu Qiang, chief engineer from Shanghai Research Institute of Building Sciences.

Such certification systems do not only address environmental issues, but also target long-term savings as well. The trend towards sustainable design and high-performance buildings has progressed in tandem with the demand for energy efficiency, says Xu.

According to Qiu Baoxing, deputy director of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, new constructions in China during the first 10 months of last year reduced the consumption of 5 million tons equivalent of coal. The momentum is expected to continue as buildings represent the greatest opportunity for considerable reductions in CO2 emissions, analysts say.

Yet despite the push, the green building industry in China has yet to win recognition from mass consumers, Xu notes.

"Many developers and consumers in China do not have a proper understanding of a building's green standards. Maintaining green lawns and clear swimming pools does not necessarily guarantee a minimum impact on the environment. The certification of a green building should cover the design, construction and operation of a building during its life," Xu says.

"Comfort, resource conservation, and overall environmental health are seen increasingly as the new standard for healthy living, and this is exactly the essence of green buildings," Xu adds. "We need more people to identify with such a life style, even if it comes at an additional cost. These people will help drive the market demand for green buildings."

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Guide to Departments of Ministry of Water

As mentioned, this is "Phase Two" --a period during which I will take a more relaxed, self-instructional approach to this project. This is (obviously perhaps) an English language guide to the sections of the Chinese Ministry of Water. My hope is to gradually start learning to recognize (and share with you, the readers) their names in Chinese.


General Office
Department of Planning and Programming
Department of Policy, Law and regulations
Department of Water Resources Management
Department of Finance and Economics
Department of Personnel, Labor and Education
Department of International Cooperation, Science and Technology
Department of Construction and Management
Department of Water and Soil Conservation
Department of Irrigation, Drainage and Rural Water Supply
The Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief headquarters

Original Content: algae blooms.

As mentioned this is "Phase Two" of this blog project. To understand China's water systems requires an understanding of a great deal of material, including China's ecology, politics, society, economy and more, as well as an understanding of water systems and problems that are likely to occur with or within water systems. Therefore during "phase two" I am going to make more of an effort to educate myself in these subjects.

So, the topic for today is algae blooms. (Heck, if you're reading this it's quite likely you know more about the subject than I do. Should you catch a mistake please leave a comment. I really do wish to understand these things.)

Also as mentioned, although scholars are quite wary of using wikipedia as a source, and with good reason, I find it useful for getting an introduction to many topics. Therefore, please accept my apologies in advance should the source be incorrect or cause offense. As, hopefully, since I covered this before, the subject should come back to me.

According to wikipedia, in some cases a condition occurs called "eutrophication." (See wikipedia for further details.)

Eutrophication is a condition where water become overly enriched with nutrients, causing aquatic plants to grow extraordinarily quickly or densely. Chemical components, such as nitrogen and phosphorous, are common among the offending nutrients. These tend to enter the water either as pollution from manufacturing or else as run off from fertilizers.

It is not uncommon for the extremely growing vegetation to be algae, in which case one has what is known as an "algae bloom."

This increased growth has many effects. To quote from Wikipedia: "Eutrophication generally promotes excessive plant growth and decay, favors certain weedy species over others, and is likely to cause severe reductions in water quality . In aquatic environments, enhanced growth of choking aquatic vegetation or phytoplankton (that is, an algal bloom) disrupts normal functioning of the ecosystem, causing a variety of problems such as a lack of oxygen in the water, needed for fish and shellfish to survive. The water then becomes cloudy, colored a shade of green, yellow, brown, or red. Human society is impacted as well: eutrophication decreases the resource value of rivers, lakes, and estuaries such that recreation, fishing, hunting, and aesthetic enjoyment are hindered. Health-related problems can occur where eutrophic conditions interfere with drinking water treatment."

Although the United States National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA, a division of the Department of Commerce, has information on these on-line,
http://www.economics.noaa.gov/?goal=ecosystems&file=events/algae/
, and the information seems to emphasize coastal algae blooms, they can occur in both fresh and saltwater.

Now let's go back to the dreaded water magazine, the one I used to work for, and check its archives. We'll use this article, http://www.watertechonline.com/news.asp?N_ID=69322 I'll trust the article because I wrote/ summarized it.

Here's a China article that discusses algae blooms:

"China river pollution cuts off water to 200,000

Monday, March 03, 2008
BEIJING — A spill on the Hanjiang River and three of its tributaries in central China’s Hubei province cut off water last week for a few days to 200,000 people, according to a February 26 Xinhua China government news report carried on sina.com.

Water samples showed high levels of ammonia and nitrogen, as well as a high permanganate index.

A later report from the Associated Press said that Chinese environmental officials had determined the source of the pollution to be algae. The algae bloom was said to have been caused by an abrupt rise in temperature, low water levels and slow currents. Pollution from factories and sewage often leads to eutrophication, the deprivation of oxygen in nutrient rich waters, and is a frequent factor in algae blooms.

The water was described as “red with large amounts of bubbles.” Several schools were closed and residents were forced to drink bottled water and rely on a limited number of wells.

The spill was first reported on February 24 and orders to stop use of river water came soon after, according to the report. On February 26, according to the report, water from Changhu lake was used to dilute the pollutants.


The article also reported that a farmer in southern Yunnan province accidentally contaminated the drinking water of 9,000 people and killed tons of fish at a nearby fishery when he tried to use phosphor-containing waste as a fertilizer in his fields."

I'm going to share this one as well. Although it's set in the USA, it does contain useful information. Again I wrote it. I'm proud of much of the work I did at this magazine and I suspect that's part of the problem. My co-workers there liked to aim low at the things they did and they generally succeeded. Yeah, I'm being snotty. I admit it. Please understand however that during the time I was there, I was the only employee of Water Technology who did not miss a day of work and the prime sabotager of my work missed about 25% of her days although our boss hid it from upper management. Also note the use of multiple sources for a single summary. This was an innovation at that publication.:

http://www.watertechonline.com/news.asp?N_ID=69315

Alum treatment clarifies MI lake
Friday, February 29, 2008

SPRING LAKE, MI — In late 2005, the Spring Lake Lake Board spent $1.3 million to pump more than 1 million gallons of aluminum sulfate, also known as alum, into Spring Lake, reports Mlive.com. The intent was to kill algae that made the lake appear as if covered with bright green paint.

In the two summers since the treatment, there have been no major algae blooms. Phosphorous concentrations have dropped by more than 50 percent, as well, according to a recent report. The report came from Progressive AE, a Grand Rapids, MI, engineering firm.

A separate study from the Grand Valley State University’s (GVSU) Water Resources Institute is reported to have found similar results.

The alum is explained to have bound with phosphorous in the lake sediment. This reduces the amount of phosphorous that is available to feed aquatic plants and algae.

Prior to treatment, the article says, the highest phosphorous concentration in the lake was 786 parts per billion (ppb). In the past two years that has dropped to 132 ppb, the data said. Average concentrations were said to be 101 ppb before the treatment and are now said to be 39 ppb.

“The lake is healthier, in general, in terms of water quality conditions,” said Alan Steinman, director of the GVSU Water Resources Institute. “But as I said before the alum treatment, this was not a panacea. If you continue to put phosphorous into the lake, with fertilizers and storm water runoff, that’s going to create more algae, which will sit on top of the alum and create a whole new problem.”

Friday, July 4, 2008

China Water: July 4, 2008: Nortel improves communication system at Ministry of Water.

Yeah, I said I was going to stop for today, didn't I? I said something about going off to research algae blooms, didn't I? I guess I lied.

This seems both interesting and important as well as easy to miss, so I decided to share it too.

Peace,

Peter Huston
===
http://www.monitortoday.com/printerfriendly.php?page=~~newsitems_180877&renderby=print
Nortel Improves Communications Flow at China's Ministry of Water Resources

Unified Communications Solution Links Employees In 31 Provinces

BEIJING, CHINA - Employees of the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) of the People's Republic of China are enjoying significant productivity gains through improved communications after MWR implemented a unified communications solution from Nortel (TSX:NT)(NYSE:NT) that links branch offices spanning 31 provinces and seven major river systems.

Responsible for water resources across China, MWR decided to upgrade its internal communications by implementing an IP-based communications platform to meet the demands of carrying voice, data, video and presence information on the same communication platform. After a two-year evaluation period, MWR selected Nortel to supply a converged communications platform that would enable delivery of collaboration tools across the organization.

Powered by Nortel technology, MWR's new communication platform is designed and built with a combined IP PBX and soft switch architecture, which enables complete business communications delivery on one unified platform. This helps MWR significantly reduce its operating costs covering network construction and ongoing maintenance costs. MWR's new converged IP network is now able to meet the demands of the new era of Hyperconnectivity which is placing unprecedented demands on the network.

"In organizations with widely distributed employees, maintaining effective communication and collaboration is a complex undertaking that can mean the difference between success and failure," said Jerry Huang, general manager, Enterprise Networks, Nortel Greater China. "Nortel's expertise in unified communications solutions, backed by our Business Made Simple philosophy, has taken the complexity out of this task. MWR now has a robust IP infrastructure that enables instant communication via VoIP, multimedia conferencing, instant messaging and presence-based applications. This means the Ministry's employees can coordinate their activities whenever, however and from wherever they need, simply and effectively."

MWR's unified communications solution is built around Nortel's Communication Server 1000 (CS 1000), a highly reliable IP PBX that offers more than 750 telephony features and supports up to 22,500 simultaneous IP users. MWR has also deployed the Nortel Multimedia Communication Server 5100 (MCS 5100), a SIP-based application delivery solution that delivers IP telephony, multimedia conferencing, instant messaging, presence, and other collaboration tools to a broad range of devices.

About Nortel
Nortel is a recognized leader in delivering communications capabilities that make the promise of Business Made Simple a reality for our customers. Our next-generation technologies, for both service provider and enterprise networks, support multimedia and business-critical applications. Nortel's technologies are designed to help eliminate today's barriers to efficiency, speed and performance by simplifying networks and connecting people to the information they need, when they need it. Nortel does business in more than 150 countries around the world. For more information, visit Nortel on the Web at www.nortel.com. For the latest Nortel news, visit www.nortel.com/news.

Posted On: 2008-07-03, 2:30 pm